Donald Trump is back on Truth Social, and this time his target is the Los Angeles mayoral primary. Over the weekend, the former president claimed that the election was being rigged because reality TV star turned Republican candidate Spencer Pratt dropped from second place into third. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten went on air to completely dismantle this claim, calling it one of the most basic misunderstandings of how elections work.
The reality of California election math doesn't care about social media rants. If you look at how votes are cast and counted in the state, what happened to Spencer Pratt wasn't a conspiracy. It was entirely predictable. Meanwhile, you can read similar stories here: The Anatomy of Deterrence: Why the Israel Iran Missile Equilibrium is Highly Unstable.
The Mirage of Early Election Night Leads
The core of the issue comes down to a phenomenon known as the blue shift. On election night, early returns often lean heavily Republican. This happens because older, more conservative voters tend to cast their ballots early or use traditional mail-in methods that get processed first.
When the initial numbers dropped on Tuesday night, Spencer Pratt looked like a shoo-in to advance to the November runoff alongside incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. He held a comfortable lead over progressive City Council member Nithya Raman. Trump saw those early numbers, assumed the race was over, and freaked out when the trailing ballots began to change the narrative. To understand the full picture, check out the recent analysis by NBC News.
What Trump calls cheating is actually just election workers opening envelopes. California allows mail-in ballots to be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days. Young voters, renters, and progressives overwhelmingly wait until the absolute last minute to drop their ballots in the mail or use drop boxes.
Harry Enten Breaks Down the Real Math
Harry Enten pointed out the glaring flaw in the rigged election narrative on CNN. The late-arriving mail ballots in Los Angeles County historically tilt heavily Democratic, specifically toward progressive candidates.
When those late drop-box and mail-in ballots finally hit the scanner, Nithya Raman rapidly closed the gap. By Monday morning, Decision Desk HQ officially projected Raman to take the second spot, edging Pratt out by just over 3,000 votes.
- Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass secured the top spot with 34.7% of the vote.
- Nithya Raman surged into second with 27.1%.
- Spencer Pratt fell to third with 26.7%.
This isn't a pattern unique to 2026. We saw the exact same dynamic play out in the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election. In California, the initial election night leader in a close race frequently loses their lead over the subsequent days. It takes weeks for California to fully certify its elections because the state prioritizes making sure every single legal vote counts over hitting an arbitrary media deadline.
The Reality TV Playbook Meets Election Mechanics
Spencer Pratt ran an aggressive, social-media-heavy campaign that mirrored Trump's own political style. He targeted voter anger over homelessness and crime in Los Angeles, outperforming expectations for a conservative candidate in a deeply blue city. He even barred mainstream media outlets from his election night watch party at Don Antonio’s restaurant, feeding into the anti-media sentiment that defines the MAGA base.
But running a loud campaign doesn't change demographic realities. Los Angeles is a city where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a massive margin. For a conservative candidate to survive a top-two primary, they need a fractured left or low turnout among progressive strongholds.
Once the provisional and late mail-in ballots from younger voters in central LA were processed, Pratt’s lead evaporated. Governor Gavin Newsom's office even weighed in on the slow count, sharing a video explaining that accuracy takes time. They added a direct swipe at Trump's late-night posts, telling him to go back to bed.
If you want to understand real election trends, ignore the midnight social media posts and look at the outstanding ballot estimates provided by county clerks. The shifts we are seeing in California right now are normal, legal, and mathematically expected. Anyone calling it a conspiracy simply doesn't understand how the state processes mail-in voting.
